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On October 19th I was invited by The Wall Street Journal to attend a book party here in Manhattan for the launch of the illustrated edition of “Super Freakonomics” I had just seen and liked the movie “Freakonomics” on opening day two weeks before. When it came time sit down for the presentation I was thrilled to be four rows back from one of the stars of the movie and co-author of the book Stephen Dubner. This guy has become successful by challenging conventional wisdom in way way out methods. To say he has hit the ball out of the park in his ability to look outside of the box is a total understatement. For example, the book demonstrates that monkeys and stock-market investors are “statistically indistinguishable” when it comes to making irrational decisions.
During the onstage interview I listened as he explained how mainstream economists had got it wrong about the economy and why he didn’t think anyone should listen to them. So far so good and when it came time for the Q and A I was the last one in the room to get to ask a question.
When they handed me the mic I said: “Some people did accurately predict this economic downturn years before it happened. They were laughed at and ridiculed for their beliefs and predictions. Now that they have been found to be right most are still ignored. Have you ever thought about studying why it is that society doesn’t pay attention to people that are right?”
He responded saying that there were people who got it right and he had not thought about studying the phenomena of why they are still ignored. He added: “I don’t know if we should continue to listen to them because a broken clock is always right two times a day.”
Needless to say my heart sank at that moment as he said the words so often used by the mainstream to discredit the people that got it right. I was amazed that someone so out of the box in his thinking about economics was in the center of the box on the getting it right group. Then it came to me, if this guy doesn’t believe in the people who got it right no wonder I feel like a freak for believing in them. Let’s admit it, when we get up out of bed each day it is very hard to face a world full of people telling us we are wrong even when we are right. We see them daily on TV with their Nobel prizes or billions of dollars saying everything wrong and getting it wrong again and again. People believe in them because they have the advantage or making you feel good since there is a lot of comfort in staying with the majority.
The number of people actually owning precious metals, commodities or mining equities is teeny tiny. And smaller still are those people who understand what’s happening in China and other emerging markets. Even when gold and silver are going up up up we still wonder if we are just plain crazy and totally wrong. What if a broken clock is right twice a day?
So we all have a choice: Go with the group that has got it all wrong, the people who got it right or don’t go with anyone. For me going it alone is much too painful and I am not interested in the crowd that didn’t see it coming and remain clueless. Even though we stand in small numbers the good news is with the magic of the internet we can stay connected and keep our wits about us even when we feel like freaks.
As for Stephen Dubner and the illustrated edition of “Super Freakonomics,” he appears to be human just like the rest of us. I like the book.
As for the broken clock, he may be right after all. Imagine being right two times every day. I wouldn’t mind being able to do that when it comes to this economy.
If you’re still feeling freaky for owning gold and silver, don’t worry it comes with the territory. Eventually everyone will find out you were right but probably when that happens you won’t feel like bragging about it.
Gregory Wyche
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